Old Summary

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It’s been quite a while since I’ve updated my main summary, so I figured I’d archive the older version here for reference.

 

I am currently a Senior at George Mason University studying to obtain my B.S. in Computer Science. As of Fall 2010, I have been participating in the Accelerated Masters Program which requires a 3.50 G.P.A. and allows me to use a series of graduate classes towards both my undergraduate and graduate degrees. My expected graduation dates are Fall 2011 and Fall 2012, respectively.

Four main programming languages have been used throughout my college courses, ordered starting with the most widely used, are: Java, C, MIPS Assembly, and Python. A vast array of topics and methods have also been covered, but are not limited to: algorithms, compilers, operating systems, low-level architecture, and database concepts.

To keep myself busy I try to tackle a number of pet projects which help expand my programming knowledge and further my experience in the field. My personal website (www.aaronfoltz.com) is one example of this. After the theme and basic design were loaded from Weebly, I took it upon myself to completely recode the base without all of the Weebly-dependent jargon and to implement a sleek navigational menu. Along the way, many other minuscule things were added, but overall, it refreshed my novice HTML experience and allowed me to dive head first into Javascript and CSS.

My Java HTML Injector is a completed project, and was designed after struggling to inject a small portion of HTML into a Java Servlet. The fact is, doing this by hand can be extremely tedious and confusing as the developer is basically juggling two different code bases concurrently. This HTML Injector allows you to completely separate the process and allows the developer to concentrate on one part of the system at a time. The developer can now edit the HTML separately, and once done, pass it to my HTML Injector which will correctly embed it in the Java source code as expected. As of now, the application is running as a Java Servlet hosted on the Google App Engine with an easy-to-use front-end on my website.

Apart from my personal experiences, I also have experience in the software development industry. During the summer of 2011, I interned at Time Warner Cable in their Cross Platform Development group. Over the course of the 10-week internship I was able to propose and completely finish a working prototype as well as design a detailed port map for a portion of the lab. The project involved a completely new aspect of programming that we are not introduced to during our undergraduate or graduate studies, so the entire process was basically learn-as-you-go. The heart of the application was located on the set-top box and was written entirely in Managed Application XML (MAX) which allowed me to complete both a presentation and logic layer. The set-top box would then communicate with a series of Java Servlets running on JBoss in order to finish the more complex logic and return something which is readable. This entire process was completed using several industry standard tools and methods such as Agile, Jira, and Version Control (Perforce).

Overall, I couldn’t have asked for more from this internship. It reignited my thirst for software development and allowed me to learn many industry standard tools as well as perfect my communication and team-working skills. Using these newfound industry skills paired with my hard work throughout my studies (I think my GPA can attest to this), I plan to get a jumpstart into a career in the Software Development field.

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Sully Plantation

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On my daily commute between Herndon and Fairfax I often take Route 28, which means that I pass by the historic Sully Plantation more than any other historic locale (see Image 1).  Although this site makes it onto the National Register of Historic Places, this location did not make it onto that list by an expected means (Sully Plantation Historic Site in Virginia).  This site isn’t historic for a battle, special event, or any other bloodshed that would traditionally make a location historic, instead, it has historic value simply because it represents and showcases the history and lives of those living in Fairfax County’s past (Sully Historic Site).

The site did however start out as a semi-special place, mainly because it was owned, built, and completed by Richard Bland Lee in 1799.  Lee didn’t only carry one of the most well-known First Families of Virginia (FFV) names, he was also General Robert E. Lee’s uncle as well as Northern Virginia’s first representative to congress (Sully Historic Site).  Lee ended up with this parcel of land based on an 18th century land grant of 3,000 acres, and from there, he built up the plantation for his own use (Sully Plantation Historic Site in Virginia).  This plantation consisted of a main house, many outbuildings, a slave quarters, and several gardens (Sully Historic Site).

From this point, the Sully Plantation and surrounding lands were acquired by the government and absorbed into the 8,000 acre Dulles Airport Project, scheduling it for demolition in 1958.  Due to a massive grass-roots effort, the ownership was transferred from the government to the Fairfax County Park Authority, all but saving it from its horrible demise (Sully Plantation Historic Site in Virginia).  Since its addition to the National Register of Historic Places in 1970, Sully Plantation has molded to showcase and present the history, lives, and architecture of  Fairfax County’s past (National Registration of Historic Places).  It is this commitment to preserving a piece of Fairfax County’s history that designates Sully Plantation as such a special place.

I most certainly believe that Sully Plantation is worthy of the designation and label of “historically special.”  Without such an all-encompassing historic representation of Fairfax County’s past, any notion of the way that this county used to look and feel to the people living in that time would be demolished and swept under the rug in order to further enable the high urban and suburban sprawl of the Fairfax County area.  The current population would only know the present way of life with the absence of such a historical site, so It is a hope of mine that such areas can be preserved and continually created as newer generations make their way into Northern Virginia.

During the time of Sully Plantation’s construction in 1799, many things were happening throughout Virginia (Sully Historic Site).  First and foremost, merely 23 years before Sully Plantation’s construction, Virginia declared its independence from the British crown and adopted its first constitution (Virginia, Timeline of State History).  Following this main benchmark, Virginia moved its capital from Williamsburg to Richmond in 1780 in an effort to better protect themselves from British attack during the Revolutionary War (Capitals of Virginia).  Shortly after this in 1781, British led Col. Tarleton piloted a fast raid on Virginia’s General Assembly meeting in Charlottesville, having already fled their normal meeting location in Richmond.  Luckily, Jack Jouett, who caught wind of the plan, was able to make the legendary trek to beat the forces to Charlottesville and warn the assembly, giving them time to make their way across the Blue Ridge mountains to the safety of Staunton (The Chesapeake Bay: Avenue for Attack).

Corresponding to these events, two other places that are associated with the time of the Sully Plantation construction are the capitol in Richmond, and Yorktown.  After moving the capital to Richmond in 1780, Virginians needed to build a state capitol in order to provide a meeting place for the General Assembly (Capitals of Virginia).  This capitol has been the primary meeting place for Virginia’s government up until the present time.  Yorktown is a prime location based solely on its history in battle.  On October 19, 1781, General Cornwallis of the British Army ended up getting bottled up in a tight situation, eventually surrendering to the American and French forces.  This surrender ended the final large-scale battle of the Revolutionary War, eventually leading to its resolution in 1783 (The Chesapeake Bay: Avenue for Attack).

Based on the 1799 date of the Sully Plantation construction and my families German/Alsatian lineage, my relatives were more than likely in Pennsylvania or somewhere in the Great Valley between there and Rockingham County.  In order to find a relative that was alive at the time of the Sully Plantation construction, I would have to go back 7 complete generations at 30 years per generation.  This follows the free ancestry that I traced back online.  As far back as I can go (~1721 at 8 generations), my ancestors were born in Holstein, Germany, but died in Rockingham and Page counties.

Works Cited

Grymes, Charles. “Capitals of Virginia.” Geography of Virginia. Web. 30 Nov. 2011.                   <http://www.virginiaplaces.org/vacities/26capitals.html>.

Grymes, Charles. “The Chesapeake Bay: Avenue for Attack.” Geography of Virginia. Web.       30 Nov. 2011. <http://www.virginiaplaces.org/chesbay/chesattack.html>.

“Sully Historic Site.” Fairfax County, Virginia. Web. 30 Nov. 2011.                                                 <http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/parks/sully/>.

“Sully Plantation Historic Site in Virginia.” Just Outside Washington DC. D & N Associates.          Web. 30 Nov. 2011. <http://www.justoutsidedc.com/SullyPlantation.html>.

United States. United States Department of the Interior. National Park Service. National              Registration of Historic Places – Nomination Form – Sully. Print.

“Virginia, Timeline of State History.” SHG Resources. Web. 30 Nov. 2011.                                    <http://www.shgresources.com/va/timeline/>.

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Electricity in Herndon, Virginia

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Growing up in rural Rockingham County where the roads are laced with telephone poles and power lines, one would think that I would have noticed the complete opposite here in Herndon, Virginia.  To be honest, I never did.  My street-view apartment on Sunrise Valley Drive is completely absent of the horrible eyesores and the problems that come along with them.  Since I’m still able to get electricity in my apartment, the power lines must be completely underground.

Although Sunrise Valley Drive is absent of visible power lines, the adjacent Coppermine Road isn’t (see Image 1).  This leads me to believe that the power lines go underground at the corner of Coppermine Road and Sunrise Valley Drive before making their way into my apartment complex.  Since I have no firsthand knowledge of my apartment’s construction, I can only make an educated guess as to where the wires lead before finally making their way into my apartment.  Living with a street-view, I can confirm that the grassy buffer between my apartment and Sunrise Valley Drive is constantly being painted and worked on, so this would seem like a likely area for all types of utility lines (see Image 2).  Even more so, that grassy area is completely treeless (except for a small mulchy patch right next to the apartment with various plants and smaller trees), making it an ideal spot for placing power lines far out of the reach of tree roots.  It seems highly likely that these power lines converge at a rather large green utility box with a traditional electrical meter before weaving their way throughout the maze of apartments in my complex (seen circled in Image 2).

Luckily I don’t own this property, so I do not have to worry about planting trees, power pole easements, and other headaches that apartment and home owners have to worry about.  One thing I do have to concerned about is the location of the transformer that completes the important step of converting electricity from 12,000 volts to the 120 volts that electrical items inside my apartment are able to operate on (Grymes).  Currently, the nearest transformer is located on a pole on a close stretch of Coppermine Road (see Image 3).  To get to my house, this freshly converted 120 volt power needs to travel just over the length of a football field, or well under one city block.

Before my Dominion electricity makes it to this transformer, it must first be converted to 12,000 volts from an even higher voltage at a local substation.  My closest substation is located just over half a mile away all the way across Route 28 on what seems like Dulles Airport property (see Image 4).  Going even further back, my power must first be generated somewhere before making it to this substation location.  The nearest Dominion electricity generating station is located in Dumfries, Virginia (see Image 5) at Possum Point Power Station (Dominion Generation).  This facility, and my electricity provided by it, is fueled by both natural gas and oil.  According to Dominion’s website, “there are four generating units; two of which are natural gas fired, one is oil fired, and the other is a dual fired combined-cycle unit,” showing that the station is trying a vast mix of methods in order to generate the most electricity while trying to be as environmentally friendly as possible (Possum Point Power Station).  This plant seems to be in constant innovation and maintenance in order to stay as efficient and as environmentally friendly as possible, so one can only assume that this plant is operational at all hours of the day instead of merely picking up during peak hours  (Possum Point Power Station).

Works Cited

“Dominion Generation.” Dominion. Dominion. Web. 14 Nov. 2011.                                               <http://www.dom.com/about/stations/index.jsp>.

Grymes, Charles. “Electricity Transmission in Virginia.” Geography of Virginia. Web. 14             Nov. 2011. <http://www.virginiaplaces.org/energy/electricitytransmission.html>.

“Possum Point Power Station.” Dominion. Dominion. Web. 14 Nov. 2011.                                   <http://www.dom.com/about/stations/fossil/possum-point-power-station.jsp>.

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Water and Wastewater in Fairfax County, Virginia

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Living just outside the Herndon town limits on the southwestern end, the authority over my apartment’s water is the non-profit Fairfax Water (see Image 1).1,2  Although this is the provider, the actual source of water comes three main areas: the Potomac River, the Occoquan River, and wells or other jurisdictions.2 The water from the Potomac River comes from an actively flowing intake just north of Great Falls, making it the closest source to me (although that still may not be where all my water comes from – see Image 2).2 In contrast, the Occoquan River isn’t tapped directly at the flow of water, it is instead stored and brought in from the Occoquan Reservoir on the southern edge of the Fairfax County (see Image 3).2  Even though these two powerhouses provide their respective treatment plants with up to 272 million gallons of water per day, well over the 135 million gallons that this distribution area requires, Fairfax Water still makes use of a small amount of well water and water from other jurisdictions.2

The quality of my drinking water is most definitely at risk from new industrial and residential development over the next 20 years.  According to Fairfax Water’s 2011 Annual Water Quality Report, both the Potomac and Occoquan Rivers are “of high susceptibility to contamination” in their present state.3  As the Chesapeake Bay Program best stated, population growth is closely linked with water quality, so if the sources are already highly susceptible, they will only be at a higher risk to contamination as the population blossoms in the future.4  And blossom it will.  According to the most recent census data, Loudoun County, the closest county bordering the Potomac River upstream, grew at a whopping 84.1 percent between 2000 and 2010.5  Not only do these numbers explicitly show that more people are migrating to the Potomac’s watershed,  it also implicitly tells us that more residential and industrial areas will be need built in order to house and employ those people.  The Occoquan Reservoir is not immune to this madness either.  Its two upstream tributaries, Bull Run, and the Occoquan River, flow through both Prince William County (the second fastest growing county at 43.2 percent) and Loudoun County.

Now that we know exactly where my water comes from at apartment, we can begin to analyze exactly where that waste goes when my wife and I are done with it.  Starting with the basics, my wife and I probably flush the toilet fifteen times per day.  Since my toilet is a low flow, 1.6 gallon per flush toilet, that means that we are using approximately 24 gallons of water each day of the year.  As for the shower, my wife and I take a single shower each day, lasting about 10 minutes each time (we like long showers).  Assuming our showerhead is five gallons per minute, we are using approximately 100 gallons of water per day.  This 124 gallons of approximate wastewater that we use each day has to go somewhere, and in our case, it goes downhill to the Blue Plains Treatment Plant (see Image 4).6  Before reaching that plant, our sewage will have to flow for nearly 40 miles, making its way through a maze of underground piping before finally crossing the Potomac River.

After being treated at the Blue Plaints Treatment Plant, our treated sewage will be ejected back into the Potomac River to eventually makes its way into the Chesapeake Bay and the Atlantic Ocean.  Being the Potomac River, it would seem more of the counties and jurisdictions downstream would use this river as their water source much like Fairfax County does at Great Falls.  By looking at the EPA’s Safe Drinking Water Information System and comparing that to a map, you can see that only Quantico and Dale City possibly use the Potomac as their main water source.7  All other counties downstream seem to mainly rely upon groundwater, lake, and reservoir sources, possibly because the treatment of contaminated water downstream from the population is far too expensive to be cost effective.8,9,10,11

Works Cited

1 Grymes, Charles. “Drinking Water in Virginia.” Geography of Virginia. Web. 07 Nov. 2011. <http://www.virginiaplaces.org/watersheds/drinkwater.html>.

2 “Metropolitan Washington Region Water Supply Agencies.” Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments. Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments. Web. 07 Nov. 2011. <http://www.mwcog.org/environment/water/watersupply/suppliers.asp>.

3 2011 Annual Water Quality Report. Rep. Fairfax Water Authority. Fairfax Water Authority. Web. 7 Nov. 2011. <http://www.fcwa.org/water/ccr/2011%20CCR%20pdf%20for%20Web.pdf>.

4 “Population Growth.” Chesapeake Bay Program. Chesapeake Bay Program. Web. 06 Nov. 2011. <http://www.chesapeakebay.net/populationgrowth.aspx?menuitem=14669>.

5 Cai, Qian. “A Decade of Change in Virginia’s Population.” The Virginia News Letter87.4 (2011): 1-3. Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. University of Virginia. Web. 6 Nov. 2011. <http://www.coopercenter.org/sites/default/files/publications/Virginia%20News%20Letter%202011%20Vol.%2087%20No%204.pdf>.

6 “Wastewater Treatment.” Fairfax County, Virginia. Fairfax County, Virginia. Web. 07 Nov. 2011. <http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/dpwes/wastewater/treatment.htm>.

7 “List of Water Systems in SDWIS – Prince William County.” US Environmental Protection Agency. US Environmental Protection Agency. Web. 7 Nov. 2011.

8 “General Information.” Stafford County, VA. Stafford County, VA. Web. 07 Nov. 2011. <http://www.co.stafford.va.us/index.aspx?NID=984>.

9 “Service Authority.” King George County. King George County. Web. 07 Nov. 2011. <http://www.king-george.va.us/county-offices/service-authority/service-authority.php>.

10 “List of Water Systems in SDWIS – Westmoreland County.” US Environmental Protection Agency. US Environmental Protection Agency. Web. 7 Nov. 2011. <http://oaspub.epa.gov/enviro/sdw_query_v2.get_list?wsys_name=&fac_search=fac_beginning&fac_county=WESTMORELAND&pop_serv=500&pop_serv=3300&pop_serv=10000&pop_serv=100000&pop_serv=100001&sys_status=active&pop_serv=&wsys_id=&fac_state=VA&last_fac_name=&page=1&query_results=&total_rows_found=>.

11 “List of Water Systems in SDWIS – Northumberland County.” US Environmental Protection Agency. US Environmental Protection Agency. Web. 7 Nov. 2011. <http://oaspub.epa.gov/enviro/sdw_query_v2.get_list?wsys_name=&fac_search=fac_beginning&fac_county=NORTHUMBERLAND&pop_serv=500&pop_serv=3300&pop_serv=10000&pop_serv=100000&pop_serv=100001&sys_status=active&pop_serv=&wsys_id=&fac_state=VA&last_fac_name=&page=1&query_results=&total_rows_found=>.

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Chesapeake Bay Watershed

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With most of Virginia’s land mass lying within the Chesapeake Bay watershed, people have a good reason to be worried about Virginians contribution to the health of the Chesapeake Bay.  To be more precise, out of the 42,322 square miles of land area within Virginia, over 56 percent of that, or 23,898 square miles, drains directly in the Chesapeake Bay in one way or another (see Image 1).1  As if such a mass of land wasn’t bad enough, the majority of Virginia’s population also happens to live within the boundaries of the watershed.  As you can see from Image 2, all but a few of the densest areas in Virginia are included within the watershed.  In more empirical population terms, all but a fraction (part of Virginia Beach and Chesapeake City) of the top 18 highest populated cities and counties in Virginia are within the boundaries.  These areas of high population are comprised of around 4.7 million people, well over half the population, just in that grouping alone.2

Foreseeing the future dangers from such a population in a small dominating area, the United States government passed the Clean Water Act, explicitly making it “unlawful to discharge any pollutant from a point source into navigable waters, unless a permit was obtained.”3 The goal of such restrictions is that all waters in the United States will eventually be fishable and swimmable by requiring jurisdictions to endorse quality standards that ensure appropriate uses for waterways.  In order to do so, the Clean Water Act requires jurisdictions to develop an EPA approved list of “impaired” waterways every two years.  A waterway that makes it to the “impaired” list by not meeting quality standards must have a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) established in an effort to meet those standards.  This established TMDL can be seen as a “diet” for the waterway, identifying the maximum amounts of each pollutant that the waterway can absorb while still passing the quality standards.4

The Chesapeake Bay first made its way onto this “impaired” list in 1999, prompting the watershed’s jurisdictions, as well the Chesapeake Bay Commission and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, to draw up the Chesapeake 2000 agreement in order to commit to the restoration and protection of the bay.5,6  This agreement went without the required TMDL for ten years, allowing for the progress to fall far short in many of the areas set forth in the agreement.  Finally, in late 2010, the EPA established the Chesapeake Bay TMDL with the hopes that stronger regulations and harsh punitive damages will force jurisdictions to do their part in the future.7

This TMDL is focused on limiting three main pollutants harming the Chesapeake Bay: nitrogen, phosphorous, and sediment.4  Combining nitrogen and phosphorous, they both mainly come from the run-off of fields filled with fertilizer and manure as well as from various wastewater treatment plants.  Sediment on the other hand, comes from run-off inducing urbanization where soil is replaced with asphalt, allowing for the pollutant to make its way directly into the bay before being filtered out.8  These pollutants cause a number of problems for the Chesapeake Bay, but the most harmful follow from the degradation of the area’s Submerged Aquatic Vegetation (SAV).  This vegetation can be seen as being the structural base of the ecosystem’s food chain, causing it to be essential to the health of the bay.9  For quite some time, these nitrogen and phosphorous nutrients have allowed for the rapid growth of algae who eventually die, absorbing the areas oxygen and creating subsequent “dead zones” where no SAV can survive.8  The sediment ends up suffocating the SAV of light, literally blanketing the area with a layer of silt that blocks the sun’s rays.9

Coming full circle with Virginia’s placement at the center of this issue, it is quite clear that Virginia has had a heavy part in failing the goals set forth by the Chesapeake 2000 agreement.  As you can see from Image 3, 4, and 5, although Virginia isn’t the biggest supplier of nitrogen, it continues to be the source of almost half of the phosphorous and sediment finding its way into the Chesapeake Bay.  It is my belief that Virginia will continue this current trend as it has over the past 10 years, failing to meet their commitments to “Save the Bay” as described in the Chesapeake 2000 agreement for a few main reasons: the population growth, neglecting concrete regulations, and the limitations of the agreement itself.

We’ve already seen that well over half of Virginia’s population lies within the Chesapeake Bay watershed, but even more worrisome is that this area of Virginia is also growing at the fastest rate (see Image 6).  For the past two decades all but a few of the high-growth areas have been inside the watershed, and with the Virginia-wide population growth trend (see Chart 1), this will only continue to be a problem.  To get a better understanding on just how bad the problem is, Northern Virginia, Richmond, and Hampton Roads, all which happen to be inside the affected watershed, make up 70 percent of the state’s population and account for 82 percent of the state’s population growth.12  As stated best by the Chesapeake Bay Program:

Water quality is inextricably linked to population growth. Each individual that lives in the Bay watershed directly affects the Bay and its rivers by adding waste and pollutants, consuming natural resources and changing the landscape to fit their needs. Population growth leads to urbanization and development: more people means more land is converted to homes, roads and stores to accommodate them.15

We can further verify this statement simply by looking at the general health of the subdivided watersheds of the Chesapeake Bay watershed (see Image 7).  Comparing this image to Image 2 or 6, we can see a massive correlation between clusters of waterways in very poor health and those areas of high density or population growth.

As stated above, this population affects the Chesapeake Bay directly in the manner of building houses, stores, and asphalt surfaces in order to support such a population.  These sources end up causing the filtering soil to be covered, allowing for vasts amounts of pollution in the form of phosphorous and sediment to flow unscathed into the bay (see Image 10 and 11). Not only does this population contribute directly to the health of the bay from infrastructure building, but it also indirectly corresponds to the amount of “significant” wastewater plants in an area (see Image 8).  These plants happen to be one of the top contributors of phosphorous and nitrogen, so as these areas of population experience rapid growth, we can only expect that more “significant” facilities will be built in order to deal with the population fluctuation (see Image 9 and 10).

Virginia also won’t be able to meet the commitments simply based upon the fact that the authorities seem to be pushovers, neglecting to explicitly require any action from those creating the pollution.  Since the early 1990’s, Virginia has been able to develop solid strategies for reducing pollution, but they always seem to “rely upon voluntary actions by farmers and land developers to reduce non-point pollution” rather than imposing punitive damages for those who continue unaltered.8  Although this non-point pollution is not the only source of pollution, it does contain run-off composed of the majority of phosphorous and sediment, two pollutants that Virginia happens to be the top contributor of (see Image 4 and 5).18,19,20 Without future stern requirements from Virginian authorities, there’s absolutely no way that anyone, especially the “power hungry” corporations, will change their current practices in order to collectively allow for Virginia to “Save the Bay.”

Finally, Virginia will not meet the commitments found in the Chesapeake 2000 agreement simply because many of their deadlines have already passed.7  Out of the entire agreement, many of them ended either on or before December 31, 2010, meaning that Virginia has no legal obligation to the commitments made in that agreement.  Only a portion of the “Sound Land Use” section, one of five major sections in the agreement, continues to be valid until the end of 2012.  The valid portion of the section reflects the jurisdiction’s commitments to “reduce the rate of harmful sprawl development of forest and agricultural land in the Chesapeake Bay watershed by 30 percent,” showing that the authorities at least had one of the most pollutant-causing areas in mind when signing this agreement.6

Endnotes

1 “Virginia’s Major Watersheds.” Department of Conservation and Recreation. Department of Conservation and Recreation. Web. 01 Nov. 2011. <http://www.dcr.virginia.gov/stormwater_management/wsheds.shtml>.

2 “Geographic Comparison Table.” American FactFinder. U.S. Census Bureau. Web. 01 Nov. 2011. <http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/GCTTable?_bm=y&-geo_id=04000US51&-_box_head_nbr=GCT-T1-R&-ds_name=PEP_2009_EST&-redoLog=false&-mt_name=PEP_2009_EST_GCTT1R_US40S&-format=ST-2S>.

3 “Summary of the Clean Water Act.” US Environmental Protection Agency. US Environmental Protection Agency. Web. 01 Nov. 2011. <http://www.epa.gov/lawsregs/laws/cwa.html>.

4 “Chesapeake Bay TMDL Frequently Asked Questions.” US Environmental Protection Agency. US Environmental Protection Agency. Web. 01 Nov. 2011. <http://www.epa.gov/reg3wapd/tmdl/ChesapeakeBay/FrequentlyAskedQuestions.html>.

5 “The Chesapeake Bay Is Impaired.” Northumberland Association for Progressive Stewardship. Web. 06 Nov. 2011. <http://www.napsva.org/ChesapeakeBayIsImpaired.html>.

6 “Chesapeake 2000.” Maryland Department of Natural Resources. Maryland Department of Natural Resources. Web. 06 Nov. 2011. <http://dnrweb.dnr.state.md.us/bay/res_protect/c2k/agreement.asp>.

7 Blankenship, Karl. “After TMDL Process, Bay Program Finds Itself at a Crossroads – May 2011.” Chesapeake Bay Journal. Chesapeake Bay Program, May 2011. Web. 06 Nov. 2011. <http://www.bayjournal.com/article.cfm?article=4103>.

8 Grymes, Charles. “Save the Bay.” Geography of Virginia. Web. 01 Nov. 2011. <http://www.virginiaplaces.org/chesbay/savethebay.html>.

9 Grymes, Charles. “Why Save the Bay?” Geography of Virginia. Web. 06 Nov. 2011. <http://virginiaplaces.org/waste/savethebay.html>.

10 “Chesapeake Bay Watershed.” The Chesapeake Bay Guide. Web. 06 Nov. 2011. <http://www.baydreaming.com/watershed.htm>.

11 United States. Environmental Protection Agency. Chesapeake Bay Final TMDL. 2010. Print.

12 Cai, Qian. “A Decade of Change in Virginia’s Population.” The Virginia News Letter87.4 (2011): 1-3. Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. University of Virginia. Web. 6 Nov. 2011. <http://www.coopercenter.org/sites/default/files/publications/Virginia%20News%20Letter%202011%20Vol.%2087%20No%204.pdf>.

13 “Population Growth.” CensusScope. Web. 06 Nov. 2011. <http://www.censusscope.org/us/s51/chart_popl.html>.

14 “Virginia.” U.S. Census Bureau. U.S. Census Bureau. Web. 06 Nov. 2011. <http://www.census.gov/geo/www/guidestloc/st51_va.html>.

15 “Population Growth.” Chesapeake Bay Program. Chesapeake Bay Program. Web. 06 Nov. 2011. <http://www.chesapeakebay.net/populationgrowth.aspx?menuitem=14669>.

16 “Watersheds : Overview.” ChesapeakeStat. Chesapeake Bay Program. Web. 06 Nov. 2011. <http://stat.chesapeakebay.net/?q=node/131>.

17 “Sources of Nitrogen Loads to the Bay.” Chesapeake Bay Program. Chesapeake Bay Program. Web. 06 Nov. 2011. <http://www.chesapeakebay.net/status_nitrogensources.aspx>.

18 “Sources of Phosphorus Loads to the Bay.” Chesapeake Bay Program. Chesapeake Bay Program. Web. 06 Nov. 2011. <http://www.chesapeakebay.net/status_phosphorusloads.aspx>.

19 “Sources of Sediment Loads to the Bay.” Chesapeake Bay Program. Chesapeake Bay Program. Web. 06 Nov. 2011. <http://www.chesapeakebay.net/status_sedimentsources.aspx?menuitem=20800>.

20 “What Is Nonpoint Source Pollution?” US Environmental Protection Agency. US Environmental Protection Agency. Web. 06 Nov. 2011. <http://water.epa.gov/polwaste/nps/whatis.cfm>.

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Frying Pan Farm Park

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Living on the south end of Herndon, the closest agricultural production site is just a stone’s throw away at Frying Pan Farm Park.  This agricultural production site is mainly surrounded by suburbia, with at least 450 single family homes and 30 connected townhouses lying within ¼ mile of the farm (see Image 1).  There are absolutely no retail stores or industrial office buildings near the farm, but there are three churches, an elementary school, and a firehouse within ¼ mile (see Image 2).

This nearby suburban development will end up having quite a substantial impact over the future years, with the majority of the problems stemming from the massive influx of population to the area.  With such a population influx comes a considerable increase in farm visitors, causing it to be abnormally active with people (compared to our normal perspective on “production” farms which probably do not allow visitors).  Such an abnormal amount of visitors can cause any farm environment to become unbalanced, allowing it to be overrun with problems ranging from increased litter to issues between pets and livestock.

On the issue of litter, it really doesn’t matter if this production farm is technically a county park, more people will always equal more litter.  This normally causes problems in all environments, but it is especially troublesome when vulnerable livestock such as cows, pigs, goats, horses, sheep, rabbits, and a peacock are roaming around unsupervised (Home).  Not only can such livestock be hurt by the litter in the short-term (e.g., by ingestion), but they can also suffer long-term from gradual seepage into the local water table.  A higher surrounding population also means a higher pet population.  Normally this isn’t an issue on a farm, but when pets get around sensitive farm animals, it can cause them to go into a craze, tearing down fences and causing timely repairs.  I see these pet problems happening in two ways: visitors not walking pets on a leash, and pets running away from the surrounding houses.  Either way, the end result will not be good for such a production farm, and could lead to the death of some of their livestock (a dog could probably kill a small pig/goat if left on its own).

The farmer that operates this farm does not own this site since it is owned by the Fairfax County Park Authority.  Although not owned by the farmer, I feel that they probably have complete lifelong control over the production “farming” operation of the property rather than having some temporary lease.  It would not be very plausible to rotate different farmers into the site while keeping the public park environment consistent.
The main products produced at this site takes the form of livestock which are maintained for visitors more than for typical “production” livestock.  The cows, pigs, goats, horses, sheep, rabbits, and peacock are “produced” and maintained in order to give visitors a true perspective into the agricultural processes taking place on a 1920’s through 1950’s farm (Home).  Although this perspective brings in no revenue for the site, they do offer parties, programs, and classes on-site for a fee (Programs and Classes).

The livestock at this location is extremely appropriate solely based upon the history of the area.  The purpose of the site is to show the history of farming in Fairfax County, so such livestock must be maintained because that is much like we would have seen less than a century ago.  Furthermore, Frying Pan Farm appropriately chose to keep its fields as open pasture, keeping with the trend that Fairfax County used to be the largest dairy producer in Virginia, shying away from fields full of “production” crops (History).

Works Cited

“History.” Friends Of Frying Pan Farm Park. Friends Of Frying Pan Farm Park. Web. 31 Oct. 2011. <http://fryingpanpark.org/?page_id=98>.

“Home.” Friends Of Frying Pan Farm Park. Friends Of Frying Pan Farm Park. Web. 31 Oct. 2011. <http://fryingpanpark.org/>.

“Programs and Classes.” Friends Of Frying Pan Farm Park. Friends Of Frying Pan Farm Park. Web. 31 Oct. 2011. <http://fryingpanpark.org/?page_id=421>.

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Schools in Herndon, Virginia

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Living in Herndon, Virginia, there are a surprising amount of elementary level schools compared to high schools.  Within a three mile radius there are exactly five traditional elementary schools and a few other specialized lower level schools, with Lutie Lewis Coates Elementary School being the closest (see Image 2).  Comparing this to the high schools in Herndon, there is only a single school catering to the entire town of Herndon: Herndon High School (see Image 1).

Further analyzing Herndon High School with Lutie Lewis Coates Elementary School, they are 4.7 miles and 1 mile away, respectively.  One could easily walk or bike to the elementary school from my apartment given the appropriate changes to the sidewalks and roads in the area.  At the moment most of the roads in the area are missing crosswalks, and furthermore, crossing the roads in this neighborhood would be treacherous to say the least.  The roads happen to be extremely wide with speedy semi-blind turns which attribute to crashes occurring fairly often, so I would hate to see elementary children in this situation.  I doubt anyone would easily be able to walk or bike to the high school.  Not only is it 4.7 miles away, but there are many crosswalks along the way as well as some of the worst traffic on your way through downtown Herndon on Elden Street.

For Herndon and the neighborhood in general, my housing situation is a fairly typical tightly-packed apartment complex.  Most of the houses in this area are exactly the same, so I would estimate that there are around 2000 residences within an easy one mile radius of the elementary school.  Contrasting this to Herndon High School, that area of Herndon is made up entirely of single family disconnected homes, with absolutely no apartment complexes whatsoever.  With a much less dense population, I would estimate this area to have around 500 residences within an easy one mile radius of the high school.  More realistically, I believe that just 5% of those within ¼ mile of the elementary school could safely walk or bike to and from school given the dangerous conditions and the children’s age.  Compare this to the high school, I believe at least 70% of those within ¼ mile will be able to safely bike or walk all the way to and from school.  Given that the students are much older and the neighborhood is much better suited for pedestrian transportation, this figure should be easily attained.

From these residency and percentage figures we can see the consequences on each school’s parking lots.  For Lutie Lewis Coates Elementary School, the parking lot is very minimal at most (see Image 3).  At least 20% of the parking lot is designated for school buses only, and there are really only 40 or so spots for other vehicles.  Furthermore, there are no bike racks anywhere to be seen, but there are fairly new crosswalks.  This leads me to believe that the school expects my estimated 5% to be walkers instead of bikers.  For Herndon High School, the parking lot is massive (see Image 4).  Approximately 30% of the parking lot is designated for school buses only, but that is quite a bit given its size.  The other 70% compromises around 500 to 700 vehicle parking spots.  Since no bike racks can be seen, I feel that this instead shows that the high school has to deal with a multitude of student drivers.

If I were on a team with some of the school and county decision makers there are three main things that I would push to implement in order to improve the access for pedestrians and bikers: improving crosswalks, adding stoplights, and adding crossing guards.  Starting with crosswalks, I would add many more in areas where they are missing, especially near the elementary school.  Children and teenagers always love to take shortcuts, so having crosswalks in as many areas as possible will definitely reduce their risk of injury.  Moving to stoplights, I would push to install several stoplights around those intersections closest to the elementary school.  Ideally, there should be stoplights at most intersections at either school in order to force traffic to yield to pedestrians, something that is becoming a bigger problem in high-pedestrian areas.  Finally, for those crosswalks without stoplights, I would move to hire crossing guards to watch over students crossing.  This would ensure that children would use the designated crossing walks as well as forcing traffic to obey the law.

Taking the hypothetical situation that a tornado blasts away both of the schools next week, I would choose to relocate Herndon High School while choosing the same location for Lutie Lewis Coates Elementary School.  Herndon High School should be moved mainly to center itself in the town of Herndon.  Right now it is located on the edge of the town limits, making it an uneven trek for different areas of dense populations.  By centering it in the town limits around Elden Street, I would expect more student pedestrians as well as a more even travel times for the majority of the bus routes.  Lutie Lewis Coates Elementary School is perfectly positioned given the abundance of elementary schools in the area.  It is perfectly centered in a fairly high density area outside of Herndon allowing for the majority of the student body to come from within a mile or two of its location.

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Herndon, Virginia During the Civil War

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Living just across Route 28 from Washington Dulles International Airport, this location was centralized around some of the most intense fighting in the area (see Image 1).  To the south we had the Battle of Bull Run and the Route 50 corridor, a corridor hotly contested by John Mosby and his infantry of rangers.  Mosby also made his presence known to the north of my location at the Herndon Station Raid in an effort to push the Union forces back to Alexandria and gain control of the Washington and Old Dominion Railroad (Prats).

With such commotion, I would imagine that my current location is quite different from what it was during the heat of the Civil War in 1864.  Based on the pictures from the Herndon Historical Society, downtown Herndon seemed to be flourishing with both people and buildings (Historical Pictures).  Although very close to my location, downtown Herndon is much different from my area even today, and I would expect the same in 1864.  What I would expect however, is a vast area built up mainly with sparse housing and pastures similar to the nearby Frying Pan Park.  On these pastures I would expect to see a mix of horse (see Horsepen Run in Image 2) and cattle as well as adequate hay and grass to tend to such livestock.

Although the majority of the area is relatively flat and good for farmland, there are a few hilly areas as well as streams and ponds which would not be suitable.  Just north and south of Frying Pan Road you can see a small area with 50 foot elevation changes (see Image 2).  Those areas are still wooded today and would have been managed as woodlots in order to generate firewood and provide fence posts to control the nearby livestock.  Also north and south of Frying Pan Road you can see a series of ponds and streams (see Image 2 and 3).  These areas would not have been farmed due to flooding, but they were more than likely used as watering holes for the livestock in the area.

Moving to the buildings and infrastructure in 1864, this area would have been immensely different.  For the roads, I would imagine that at least the biggest roads would have been around: Route 28 and Centreville Road.  Route 28 would have been there as an easy route for travelers moving up from Manassas, Centreville, and Fairfax.  Centreville Road would have been needed in order to get into downtown Herndon, so I feel this road would also have been necessary at that time.  As for the buildings in the area, I would expect to see various homes and stables, but I doubt there were any slave quarters in the area since livestock seemed to win out over the more labor-intensive cash crops.  The houses would have been typical 1800’s farm and homestead houses stationed at the edge of the farms or on hills.  The stables would have been stationed in the middle of the pastures away from any hills or streams and closer to the main source of food for the livestock.

If Mosby decided to ride into my neighborhood with 20 of his finest rangers looking to quickly attack a Union camp, he probably would have arrived from the south or southwest (This probably resembles what happened at the Herndon Station Raid).  Route 50 is definitely known to be “Mosby Country,” so coming from the south should be expected (Mosby Country).  When making a getaway, Mosby more than likely choose a southerly route for the same reason.  He seemed to have mostly dominating control over the Route 50 corridor, so I’m sure that he would have felt safe moving back to his “country.”

If Union reinforcements were to be sent to the scene of this skirmish, they probably would have arrived from the east on the Washington and Old Dominion Railroad and then traveled southwest from Herndon Station.  The Union had control over this railroad until Mosby truncated the railroad at Vienna, so I’m sure this railroad would have been used to haul cavalry much like the Manassas Gap Railroad (Mosteller).  The reinforcements would more than likely have come blazing from the north, bracing for a fight with Mosby.  They would only be in that situation if the location of the skirmish with Mosby was confirmed, so they would have no need to carefully scout the area before rushing to the battle zone to save their comrades.

Works Cited

“Historical Pictures.” Herndon Historical Society. Herndon Historical Society. Web. 21 Oct. 2011. <http://www.herndonhistoricalsociety.org/historicalpictures.html>.

“Mosby Country.” Civil War Traveler: Northern Virginia. Web. 21 Oct. 2011. <http://www.civilwar-va.com/EAST/VA/va-north/no-mosby.html>.

Mosteller, William. “A Short History of the Washington and Old Dominion.” Great Decals! Web. 21 Oct. 2011. <http://www.greatdecals.com/WNOD.htm>.

Prats, J. J. “Mosby’s Herndon Station Raid.” The Historical Marker Database. 10 Mar. 2006. Web. 21 Oct. 2011. <http://www.hmdb.org/marker.asp?marker=151>.

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Tolling Fairfax County Parkway

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On Wednesday, October 12th at 2pm, I visited the Interstate 66/Fairfax County Parkway corridor, much like I do every Wednesday.  The weather outside was wet and dreary, adding to the intensity of driving on such a horrendous section of road.  If I had to choose an area to convert an existing road into a toll road, this area of Fairfax County Parkway between Route 50 and Braddock Road would be at the top of my list.

To start, I would charge a $1.50 toll for each use.  There would be a toll booth located at each entrance to the designated area of Fairfax County Parkway, only accepting electronic payment through the use of an electronic tag (see Figure 1).  Although the toll is for each separate use, the electronic payment process will honor each payment for exactly two hour’s time.  This means that once a person has entered Fairfax County Parkway and paid the initial toll fee, they will then be able to freely leave and re-enter the parkway free of charge for two hours.  There will be no discounts whatsoever for regular customers, High Occupancy Vehicles, motorcycles, electric cars, or local residents.  I feel that the lenient two hour time frame is more than generous to alleviate some of the burden of many motorists frequenting the parkway.

As for the revenue from this expenditure, I would expect to receive just over $36 million dollars per year on the low end.  This figure can be calculated from VDOT’s daily use statistics, noting that each day of the year over 66,000 cars drive through the Fairfax County Parkway and Fair Lakes Parkway intersection (Thomson).  That intersection, although busy, probably isn’t the busiest section of the proposed toll area, so I would expect that estimate to be on the lower end of reality.  Based on the amount of traffic on Interstate 66, I would assume that the adjacent area of Fairfax County Parkway would have significantly more motorists per day.

Despite the revenue, there would still be significant effort to keep the up front costs of tolling this section of road down to a minimum.  Once these up front costs have been taken care of there should not be any recurring costs in the future since the operation will be completely electronic and automatic, ridding any need for paying toll taker’s salaries.  The initial installation of the complete system, however, will without a doubt cost quite a bit of money.  The entrances throughout the area will need to be completely redone, allowing for the inclusion of toll booths and gates.  That physical road work alone would probably near 50 million dollars, if not considerably more (Fairfax County Parkway/Fair Lakes Parkway).  On top of the roadwork that needs to be done, the actual toll booth systems would have to be provided.  Since the booths do not need to be manned, they can basically be an electronic receiver with gate and camera to enforce the toll requirement.  In total we would need at least 24 of these booths, 3 at each entrance, and with each of them costing around $20,000, we can expect to spend half a million dollars.  The electronic tagging that each motorist will need will be at the motorists expense, not ours, much like the E-ZPass system found at the Dulles Toll Road.

The revenue from the tolling would be used in two main ways.  Firstly, this entire portion of road badly needs to be re-paved.  Speaking from experience driving on this portion of road more than three times per week, I can tell you that it is easily the bumpiest road that I have seen in Fairfax County.  Second, I would expand the portion of road adjacent to Route 66 to three or four lanes.  During rush hour, traffic is always stopped on the ramps, and that seems to always bleed out onto the main parkway.  This causes the rightmost lane of the two lane parkway to be congested, with only one passable lane (see Figure 2).  If you’re trying to continue past 66, the journey can be dangerous as motorists jockey to get out of the congestion on the entrance and exit ramps.

Regardless of the need to toll, many objections will be raised against this plan.  Expect for George Mason University students and local residents to put up the biggest fight.  For the students, their argument will center around the toll price, noting that many students are already short on cash and will have to pay the toll multiple times per day given the sporadic class schedules of George Mason University.  For local residents, they will use the argument of traffic diversion.  They will argue that a toll will only cause motorists to avoid the area in search for other routes, adding to the congestion of roads that are not fit to handle such traffic (Toll Road).

To convince locally elected officials to support this proposal, I would only need to use two main arguments.  First, the money to support the maintenance of this road needs to come from somewhere.  Given the current conditions of this road, it’s obvious that there are not adequate funds to properly keep this portion of road in good condition when it most certainly needs to be.  Second, by widening the portion of the parkway adjacent to Interstate 66, we can expect to take some of the burden away from the congestion on the interstate.  Just as rush hour traffic congests the parkway side of the ramp, it also congests the interstate side.  The widening will allow traffic to easily enter and exit the interstate, ridding the area of some of the congestion on both sides of the spectrum.

Works Cited

“Fairfax County Parkway/Fair Lakes Parkway.” VDOT – Virginia Department of Transportation. Virginia Department of Transportation, 13 Sept. 2011. Web. 12 Oct. 2011. <http://www.virginiadot.org/projects/northernvirginia/fairfax_county_parkway-fair_lakes.asp>.

Thomson, Robert. “Untangling a Knot on Fairfax Parkway.” The Washington Post. The Washington Post, 6 Nov. 2010. Web. 11 Oct. 2011. <http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/06/AR2010110603447.html>.

“Toll Road: Virginia Plans to Make Drivers Pay on Interstate 95 – Latimes.com.” Los Angeles Times. Los Angeles Times, 20 Sept. 2011. Web. 12 Oct. 2011. <http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/nationnow/2011/09/in-virginia-the-road-will-soon-toll-for-thee-.html>.

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

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Geology and History of Rockingham County, Virginia

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Growing up in Timberville, Va, I’ve always had an affinity for Rockingham County and its beautiful scenery.  Near the end of my high school education at Broadway High School I started to realize that we learned about various places scattered all over the world, but the one thing that they failed to teach us is about the area in which we were all living.  Given this exclusive opportunity to analyze a specific place in Virginia, it comes at no surprise that I chose Rockingham County, Va.

Starting with the physical characteristics of the county, the most notable feature is that it is tucked entirely within the Valley and Ridge Province in the Shenandoah Valley (see Image 2).  This valley is given the designation for a good reason: on the right of the valley lies the Blue Ridge Mountains and on the left side of the valley lies the Appalachian Mountains.  Such a configuration creates a trough which in turn creates a rainshadow effect, restricting Rockingham County to be one of the driest counties in Virginia (see Image 3).  Along with these bordering mountains, Rockingham County also has the Massanutten Mountains cutting through the Eastern Central part of the county, almost creating a smaller valley inside the bigger Shenandoah Valley (see Figure 1).

As for the overall topography of the area, the valleys lies at around 1200 feet above sea level and the mountains highest points lie anywhere from 3200 to 4000 feet above sea level.  The Appalachian Mountain portion, the largest portion of mountains in the county, also happens to be the highest.  Coming in at 4000 feet, Flagpole Knob, located near the West Virginia and Augusta County border, is the highest point in Rockingham County (see Image 4).  The Blue Ridge Mountains are the second highest mountain range in Rockingham County coming in at 3600 feet at a mountain just east of Skyline Drive and Bald Face Mountain (see Image 6).  The Massanutten Mountains, the smallest portion of mountains in Rockingham County, is the smallest range of mountains with Laird Knob reaching 3200 feet (see Image 5).  Despite the high points of each mountain range, each of the three mountain chains are very gentle and similar in topography.  Each of them have an average height at around 2000 feet, with the higher points to the east and west of each of the ranges.

With such vast topography changes in such short distances, one might ponder exactly why such a configuration has happened where it did, and we can find the answer to that question lying under the soil in the rocks of Rockingham County.  For both the Massanutten and Appalachian Mountains, the mountains have managed to survive millions of years of intense erosion by being capped with a rather erosion resistant layer of sandstone strata.1 As for the much older Blue Ridge Mountains the east, they have survived by being composed mainly from volcanic granite and other various metamorphic formations, some of the hardest and most resistant rocks in the world.2 With the mountains being fairly resistant to erosion, one could take a guess that the valley of Rockingham County is made of something less resistant, and they would be exactly right.  The valley is covered almost exclusively with shale and limestone, with limestone being the worse of the two.  Rockingham County happens to have a valley floor composed primarily of a 10,000 foot thick layer of limestone which rapidly erodes on contact with acidic water, causing the valley to be carved out at a much higher rate than the surrounding mountains.1

This limestone not only serves its purpose in allowing the valley to be carved out, but it also allows many areas of Rockingham County to have a karst topography (see Image 7).  Since the limestone is easily eroded, it allows pockets of limestone underground to be deteriorated to the point that it becomes a cave.  In the case of Rockingham County, many of the caves give under the stresses of gravity, creating sinkholes.  As you can see in Image 8, much of the valley floor in Rockingham County is covered in red dots, representing sinkholes.3  Those caves that do stay standing are mostly hidden and unknown to the public, but a few get turned into show caves and are stamped with the branding of a “cavern” much like we see today in the Endless Caverns just off Route 11.1
Connected to these vast underground cave structures is the water that causes their existence in the first place.  As an entirety, Rockingham County is noted as being in the Potomac River watershed, but that can be further split into the North Fork and South Fork of the Shenandoah River watershed (see Image 9).4  This means that all water dropping in Rockingham County will eventually make it to the Potomac River and into the Chesapeake Bay.  As you can see from the watershed subunits, the two main rivers cutting through Rockingham County are the North and South Fork of the Shenandoah River.  The North Fork of the Shenandoah River actually originates in Rockingham County in the Appalachian Mountains near Bergton.  From there, it cuts east out of the mountains and into the valley where it then goes north parallel to the Massanutten Mountains on its western side (see Figure 2).  The South Fork of the Shenandoah River does not originate in Rockingham County, instead, it follows the southern political county boundary before making a sharp turn north, running parallel to the Massanutten Mountains on its eastern edge (see Figure 3).

Moving to the evolution of the cultural patterns in Rockingham County, the county first had its beginnings in or around 1670.  At this time, John Lederer, a monk of German decent, made his way from Jamestown, eventually entering into the valley and what would later be known as Rockingham County.  He was said to be marking out an area that his fellow countrymen would later inhabit in the coming years.  His fellow European countrymen wouldn’t make it to the valley until 1722, when German and Scotch-Irish settlers started migrating down the Great Valley from Pennsylvania to North Carolina.  Once the northerners started migrating into the valley, they found lush farmlands as well as bargain acreage prices.  Equal 100 acre parcels of land would go for six or seven pounds cheaper in the Shenandoah Valley than in Pennsylvania and other northern states.  It is my belief that these prices, linked with the difficulties of crossing the Blue Ridge Mountains, allowed for the European migrations down the Great Valley to dominate the English migrations from eastern Virginia.  This migration line would then lead to the development of Rockingham County into what we have today: a predominately German, Irish, and Scotch-Irish ancestral population.8

Moving to future predictions for the area over the next 20 to 100 years, I predict that the county could grow to a population of 85,000 in 20 years and to 150,000 within the next 100 years (see Chart 3).  These predictions are based upon the growth trends for the county, which can be broken up into separate eras.  Between 1790 and 1910, the population growth follows a very linear pattern (see Chart 2), whereas from 1920 to 2010 the growth follows a more exponential curve (see Chart 3).  Taking the most recent pattern as the future trend, we can gather a good indicator for future population predictions.  This new population will more than likely continue to follow past trends of population density as seen in Image 10 and 11.9  This means that the population will more than likely continue to follow the densest belts through central and eastern Rockingham County, all but avoiding the areas of the Appalachian, Massanutten, and Blue Ridge Mountains. Over time, much like we see in the images above, the less dense parts of the valley, excluding the mountains, will continue to become more dense until the entire valley is of medium to high density.  This is the exact plan that the Rockingham County Board of Supervisors came up with in 2006, titled the Comprehensive Plan 2006 Review.  Their general plan is to continue the outward residential and commercial sprawl of many areas of the county including Timberville, Broadway, Grottoes, Massanutten, and the outer lying brim of the Harrisonburg City limits.10

Endnotes

1 Sherwood, W. Cullen. “A BRIEF GEOLOGIC HISTORY OF ROCKINGHAM COUNTY.” Dept. of Geology and Environmental Studies. James Madison University. Web. 09 Oct. 2011. <http://csmres.jmu.edu/geollab/vageol/outreach/fieldtrips/rockingham/whole.html>

2 Topinka, Lyn. “America’s Volcanic Past.” USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO). U.S. Geological Survey, 20 May 2003. Web. 09 Oct. 2011. <http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/LivingWith/VolcanicPast/Places/volcanic_past_appalachians.html>.

3 United States. Commonwealth of Virginia Department of Conservation and Economic Development. Division of Mineral Resources. Selected Karst Features of The Northern Valley and Ridge Province, Virginia. By David A. Hubbard. Division of Mineral Resources. Web. 10 Oct. 2011. <http://www.dmme.virginia.gov/commercedocs/PUB_44.pdf>.

4 “Virginia Watersheds.” Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries. Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries. Web. 10 Oct. 2011. <http://www.dgif.virginia.gov/education/sol/watersheds.asp>.

5 “USA Counties.” Censtats Database. U.S. Census Bureau. Web. 11 Oct. 2011. <http://censtats.census.gov/cgi-bin/usac/usatable.pl>.

6 “Historical Census Browser.” University of Virginia Library. University of Virginia. Web. 11 Oct. 2011. <http://mapserver.lib.virginia.edu/>.

7 Wayland, John Walter. A History of Rockingham County, Virginia. Dayton, VA: Ruebush-Elkins, 1912. Print.

8 “Rockingham County, Virginia – Ancestry & Family History.” City & County Information, Town & Community Information – EPodunk. EPodunk. Web. 11 Oct. 2011. <http://www.epodunk.com/cgi-bin/genealogyInfo.php?locIndex=22951>.

9 “Rockingham County Population Density Map.” Virginia Department Of Forestry. Virginia Department of Forestry, 18 May 2006. Web. 11 Oct. 2011. <http://www.dof.virginia.gov/regCentral/rkh-info-pop-map.shtml>.

10 “Comprehensive Plan Contents.” Rockingham County, Virginia. Rockingham County, 28 Feb. 2007. Web. 11 Oct. 2011. <http://www.rockinghamcountyva.gov/showpage.aspx?PageID=237>.

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Image 9.

Image 10.

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Image 11.

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Figure 1.

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Chart 1.

Year Population Percent Change
1790 7,449 -
1800 10,374 39.267%
1810 12,753 22.932%
1820 14,784 15.926%
1830 20,683 39.901%
1840 17,344 -16.144%
1850 20,294 17.009%
1860 23,408 15.344%
1870 23,668 1.111%
1880 29,567 24.924%
1890 31,299 5.858%
1900 33,527 7.118%
1910 34,903 4.104%
1920 30,047 -13.913%
1930 29,709 -1.125%
1940 31,289 5.318%
1950 35,079 12.113%
1960 40,4856 15.411%
1970 47,890 18.291%
1980 57,038 19.102%
1990 57,482 0.778%
2000 67,714 17.800%
2010 76,3145 12.700%

Chart 2.
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Chart 3.

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